Politics

World politics: the odds

Every world politics market on Kalshi and Polymarket: 383 markets with live odds, money traded and the last 24 hours, updated every 10 minutes.

Markets
383
Traded today
$12.9M
Traded all time
$1.6B
On Kalshi / Polymarket
51 / 332

Updated Oct 4, 5:09 PM ET

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceAugusto Cury 89%▲ 66Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceAugusto Cury 92%▲ 66Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 89%▲ 64Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 90%▲ 63Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerFlavio Bolsonaro 88%▲ 59Brazil presidential election: first round winner?Flávio Bolsonaro 88%▲ 57Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% 79%▲ 56Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro <5% 75%▲ 51Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in TocantinsFlavio Bolsonaro 86%▲ 46Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas GeraisFlavio Bolsonaro 76%▲ 44Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election WinnerAllyson 41%▼ 39Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?October 4 89%▲ 34Brazil presidential election: 4th place (1st round)Ronaldo Caiado 48%▲ 34Paraná Senate Election: 1st PlaceFilipe Barros 44%▲ 31Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?March 31, 2027 61%▲ 31Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerEduardo Paes 46%▼ 31

Where the money is today

Each bubble is a market, sized by dollars traded in the last 24 hours

82%Flávio Bolsonaro45%Marine Le Pen88%Flavio Bolsonaro84%Flávio Bolsonaro90%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva46%Gadi Eizenkot72%March 3192%Augusto Cury75%Flávio Bolsonaro <5%88%Flávio Bolsonaro16%98%16%99%16%2%14%18%98%5%88%71%72%79%19%88%83%78%89%99%23%11%84%34%

World politicsTrump and the White HouseCourts and the lawCongressCabinet and appointmentsPolicy and the economyParties and 2028Other electionsMore politics

World politics

383 markets · $12.9M today

Polymarket▲ 21 pts

Brazil Presidential Election

  • Flávio Bolsonaro82%
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva17%
  • Geraldo Alckmin<1%
  • Tarcisio de Freitas<1%
  • +15 more
$3.2M today
$166.7M all time · ends Oct 5, 2026
Polymarket

Next French Presidential Election

  • Marine Le Pen45%
  • Édouard Philippe18%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
  • David Lisnard11%
  • +38 more
$1.1M today
$144.0M all time · ends Apr 19, 2027
Kalshi▲ 22 pts

Brazil Presidential election winner?

In The next presidential election

  • Flávio Bolsonaro84%
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva18%
  • Ciro Gomes1%
  • Augusto Cury1%
  • +10 more
$702K today
$6.6M all time · ends Oct 25, 2027
Kalshi▼ 1 pts

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

In 2026

  • Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms16%
  • Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine10%
  • Doctors Without Borders9%
  • Save the Children9%
  • +33 more
$222K today
$2.1M all time · ends Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket▼ 1 pts

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

  • Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms16%
  • Save the Children8%
  • Mykola Kuleba7%
  • International Court of Justice6%
  • +29 more
$186K today
$26.0M all time · ends Apr 1, 2027
Polymarket

Iran leader end of 2026?

  • Mojtaba Khamenei88%
  • No Head of State5%
  • Reza Pahlavi3%
  • Alireza Arafi1%
  • +26 more
$95K today
$39.8M all time · ends Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket▲ 19 pts

Bahia Governor Election Winner

  • Jerônimo Rodrigues88%
  • ACM Neto13%
  • João Roma<1%
  • José Carlos Aleluia<1%
  • +3 more
$48K today
$291K all time · ends Oct 5, 2026
Polymarket▼ 0 pts

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

  • Alexandru Nazare34%
  • Sorin Grindeanu21%
  • Luca Niculescu11%
  • Eugen Tomac9%
  • +34 more
$34K today
$4.5M all time · ends Jan 1, 2028
Polymarket▲ 14 pts

Ceará Governor Election Winner

  • Elmano de Freitas80%
  • Ciro Gomes18%
  • Eduardo Girão<1%
  • Capitão Wagner<1%
  • +2 more
$34K today
$396K all time · ends Oct 5, 2026
Polymarket▼ 11 pts

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

  • December 3131%
  • November 3023%
  • October 3118%
  • October 158%
  • +1 more
$33K today
$1.6M all time · ends Jan 1, 2027
Polymarket▲ 14 pts

Paraná Governor Election Winner

  • Sergio Moro82%
  • Sandro Alex14%
  • Requião Filho1%
  • Rafael Greca<1%
  • +5 more
$30K today
$290K all time · ends Oct 5, 2026
Polymarket▼ 1 pts

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo79%
  • Pedro Sánchez17%
  • Santiago Abascal3%
  • Isabel Díaz Ayuso1%
  • +12 more
$24K today
$332K all time · ends Apr 1, 2028
Polymarket▲ 3 pts

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

  • Olivia Chow90%
  • Brad Bradford11%
  • Ana Bailão<1%
  • Michael Ford<1%
  • +4 more
$17K today
$211K all time · ends Oct 27, 2026

Markets in Kalshi's Politics and Elections categories and Polymarket's politics tags with at least $1,000 traded, except the races covered on our race pages. Prices are each exchange's own (bid/ask midpoint on Kalshi, displayed price on Polymarket). Research, not betting advice.

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