Question 1

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 3% chance. $15K traded in the last 24 hours, $14.1M in all.

Question 2

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket give it a 8% chance. $10K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.8M in all.

Question 3

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Shutdown & Democratic Party at 93%, ahead of Shutdown & Republican Party at 7%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours, $347K in all.

Question 4

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Florida at 99%, ahead of California at 97%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours, $418K in all.

Question 5

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Raphael Warnock at 12%, ahead of Thom Tillis at 12%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours, $216K in all.

Question 6

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2028 at 16%, ahead of Before Oct 1, 2027 at 15%. $977 traded in the last 24 hours, $4.1M in all.

Question 7

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Above 58 at 9%, ahead of Above 60 at 9%. $670 traded in the last 24 hours, $116K in all.

Question 8

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Josh Hawley at 13%, ahead of Raphael Warnock at 7%. $480 traded in the last 24 hours, $58K in all.

Question 9

New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket give it a 1% chance. $433 traded in the last 24 hours, $71K in all.

Question 10

Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 20% chance. $400 traded in the last 24 hours, $2K in all.

Congress: the odds

Where the money is today

Congress

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Will the Clarity Act become law?

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

Will the House pass additional defense funding?

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

Will the SAVE America Act become law?

Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?