Question 1

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 36% chance. $24K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.2M in all.

Question 2

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Above 4.5% at 13%, ahead of Above 5% at 8%. $11K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.5M in all.

Question 3

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 4% chance. $8K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.4M in all.

Question 4

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 6% chance. $3K traded in the last 24 hours, $50K in all.

Question 5

Deportations in 2026?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Above 200,000 at 99%, ahead of Above 300,000 at 99%. $3K traded in the last 24 hours, $170K in all.

Question 6

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket give it a 32% chance. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $3.8M in all.

Question 7

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 37% chance. $479 traded in the last 24 hours, $32K in all.

Question 8

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor  ↑ 4.25% at 66%, ahead of  ↑ 4.5% at 13%. $431 traded in the last 24 hours, $1.9M in all.

Question 9

Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?

Accepted Answer

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket give it a 15% chance. $318 traded in the last 24 hours, $49K in all.

Policy and the economy: the odds

Where the money is today