Politics

More politics: the odds

Every more politics market on Kalshi and Polymarket: 101 markets with live odds, money traded and the last 24 hours, updated every 10 minutes.

Markets
101
Traded today
$463K
Traded all time
$111.9M
On Kalshi / Polymarket
86 / 15

Updated Oct 4, 5:09 PM ET

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?November 30 99%▲ 30Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?66%▼ 22Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?Kash Patel 39%▼ 10Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026?James Talarico 84%▲ 9Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?1000+ 25%▼ 7Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?December 31, 2026 25%▼ 6Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?October 4 94%▲ 6Kansas Senate margin of victoryMarshall, 3+ pts 45%▼ 5USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?December 31 57%▲ 5Bexar County Judge winner?Ron Nirenberg >99%▲ 4Texas Senate margin of victoryJames Talarico, 1+ pts 62%▲ 3Closest Senate race in 2026?Iowa 18%▼ 3Fulton County Commission Chair winner?Mo Ivory 98%▲ 3Michigan Senate winner? (Person)Abdul El-Sayed 72%▲ 2Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/5 - 10/11)Above 175 88%▲ 2Texas Senate margin of victoryKen Paxton, 1+ pts 33%▲ 2

Where the money is today

Each bubble is a market, sized by dollars traded in the last 24 hours

36%Above 523%December 311%Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026?44%James Talarico and Troy Jackson97%September 3072%Abdul El-Sayed84%James Talarico88%Blue wave in 2026?2%Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?99%Above 15092%Above 17525%December 31, 202646%Christopher Luxon14%Above 24962%James Talarico, 1+ pts67%Sayed, 1+ pts25%1000+>99%Ron Nirenberg88%Above 17593%Above 15086%Will the midterms happen on time?97%Mark Keough11%55%

World politicsTrump and the White HouseCourts and the lawCongressCabinet and appointmentsPolicy and the economyParties and 2028Other electionsMore politics

More politics

101 markets · $463K today

Kalshi

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

Before Nov 2026

  • James Talarico and Troy Jackson44%
  • Ken Paxton and Susan Collins30%
  • James Talarico and Susan Collins19%
  • Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson12%
  • +2 more
$26K today
$1.2M all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▲ 2 pts

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

In 2026

  • Abdul El-Sayed72%
  • Mike Rogers30%
  • Mallory McMorrow1%
  • Haley Stevens1%
$16K today
$2.1M all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

Blue wave in 2026?

In 2026

88%chance of Yes
$11K today
$922K all time · ends Feb 1, 2027
Kalshi▲ 3 pts

Texas Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • James Talarico, 1+ pts62%
  • James Talarico, 3+ pts43%
  • James Talarico, 5+ pts26%
  • James Talarico, 7+ pts14%
$9K today
$253K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▲ 1 pts

Michigan Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Sayed, 1+ pts67%
  • Sayed, 3+ pts55%
  • Sayed, 5+ pts38%
  • Sayed, 7+ pts24%
  • +4 more
$9K today
$169K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

Florida Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Moody, 2+ pts83%
  • Moody, 4+ pts81%
  • Moody, 6+ pts56%
  • Moody, 8+ pts45%
  • +5 more
$5K today
$73K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▼ 5 pts

Kansas Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Marshall, 3+ pts45%
  • Marshall, 5+ pts31%
  • Marshall, 7+ pts24%
  • Marshall, 9+ pts15%
  • +7 more
$5K today
$37K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

Maine Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Jackson, 1+ pts55%
  • Jackson, 3+ pts43%
  • Jackson, 5+ pts28%
  • Jackson, 7+ pts19%
  • +3 more
$4K today
$199K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▼ 3 pts

Closest Senate race in 2026?

Before Jan 3, 2027

  • Iowa18%
  • Texas13%
  • Kansas10%
  • Maine9%
  • +16 more
$4K today
$683K all time · ends Jan 3, 2027
Kalshi▲ 2 pts

Texas Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Ken Paxton, 1+ pts33%
  • Ken Paxton, 3+ pts21%
  • Ken Paxton, 5+ pts10%
  • Ken Paxton, 7+ pts7%
  • +3 more
$3K today
$316K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

Georgia Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Ossoff, 2+ pts92%
  • Ossoff, 4+ pts86%
  • Ossoff, 6+ pts74%
  • Ossoff, 8+ pts59%
  • +5 more
$3K today
$56K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▲ 1 pts

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

in 2026

  • Mary Peltola73%
  • Dan Sullivan28%
  • Daniel J. Sullivan1%
  • Ann Diener<1%
  • +2 more
$2K today
$362K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

Who will be arrested in 2026?

Before Jan 2027

  • John Brennan24%
  • Mahmoud Khalil18%
  • James Clapper11%
  • Anthony Fauci11%
  • +20 more
$2K today
$1.3M all time · ends Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi▲ 1 pts

Iowa Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Turek, 2+ pts36%
  • Turek, 4+ pts19%
  • Turek, 6+ pts9%
$2K today
$25K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi

CA-11 House winner?

In 2026

  • Scott Wiener75%
  • Connie Chan22%
$2K today
$157K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi▲ 1 pts

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Lowered from Schedule I

  • Before Jan 20, 202980%
  • Before 202867%
  • Before 20278%
$2K today
$969K all time · ends Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

In 2026

  • Troy Jackson56%
  • Susan Collins43%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Janet Mills<1%
  • +11 more
$2K today
$2.8M all time · ends Jul 7, 2027
Kalshi

Ohio Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

  • Brown, 2+ pts56%
  • Brown, 4+ pts48%
  • Brown, 6+ pts27%
  • Brown, 8+ pts15%
  • +1 more
$2K today
$48K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027

Markets in Kalshi's Politics and Elections categories and Polymarket's politics tags with at least $1,000 traded, except the races covered on our race pages. Prices are each exchange's own (bid/ask midpoint on Kalshi, displayed price on Polymarket). Research, not betting advice.

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