What are the odds for "2028 Democratic VP nominee"?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Elissa Slotkin at 9%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. $6K traded in the last 24 hours, $3.2M in all.

What are the odds for "2028 Republican Presidential ticket"?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor JD Vance and Marco Rubio at 36%, ahead of Marco Rubio and JD Vance at 11%. $5K traded in the last 24 hours, $102K in all.

Politics

Parties and 2028: the odds

Q: How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor 48 at 16%, ahead of 47 at 16%. $198K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.5M in all.

Q: How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Below 193 at 30%, ahead of 198-202 at 16%. $40K traded in the last 24 hours, $3.6M in all.

Q: Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Texas at 37%, ahead of North Carolina at 20%. $10K traded in the last 24 hours, $131K in all.

Q: Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor ↓ 7% at 79%, ahead of ↓ 5% at 23%. $6K traded in the last 24 hours, $96K in all.

Q: Democratic Senate odds on October 9?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor 64-66% at 46%, ahead of >66% at 31%. $3K traded in the last 24 hours, $3K in all.

Q: Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor Ron DeSantis at 14%, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 14%. $3K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.2M in all.

Q: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jul 1, 2027 at 48%, ahead of Before Jan 1, 2027 at 14%. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $90K in all.

Q: Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

As of October 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket favor ↓ 30% at 45%, ahead of ↑ 40% at 36%. $2K traded in the last 24 hours, $45K in all.

Every parties and 2028 market on Kalshi and Polymarket: 31 markets with live odds, money traded and the last 24 hours, updated every 10 minutes.

Markets: 31
Traded today: $288K
Traded all time: $13.4M
On Kalshi / Polymarket: 19 / 12

Updated Oct 4, 5:09 PM ET

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7% 79%▼ 19Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Ron DeSantis 14%▲ 5Democratic Senate odds on October 9?64-66% 46%▲ 52028 Republican Presidential ticketJD Vance and Marco Rubio 36%▲ 3Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?Before Jul 1, 2027 48%▼ 3How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?48 16%▲ 2

Where the money is today

Each bubble is a market, sized by dollars traded in the last 24 hours

16%48 30%Below 193 37%9%79%36%46%14%48%45%88%89%80%10%80%40%53%57%11%14%97%80%27%58%76%43%30%31%9%21%39%

World politicsTrump and the White HouseCourts and the lawCongressCabinet and appointmentsPolicy and the economyParties and 2028Other electionsMore politics

Parties and 2028

31 markets · $288K today

Kalshi▲ 2 pts

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

On Feb 1, 2027

4816%
4716%
4914%
5012%
+11 more

$198K today
$1.5M all time · ends Feb 1, 2027

Kalshi

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

On Feb 1, 2027

Below 19330%
198-20216%
193-19714%
203-20714%
+7 more

$40K today
$3.6M all time · ends Feb 1, 2027

Kalshi

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Before Jan 3, 2027

Texas37%
North Carolina20%
Kansas19%
Alaska11%
+12 more

$10K today
$131K all time · ends Jan 3, 2027

Kalshi▲ 1 pts

2028 Democratic VP nominee

In 2028

Elissa Slotkin9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%
Pete Buttigieg7%
Wes Moore6%
+41 more

$6K today
$3.2M all time · ends Nov 7, 2028

Polymarket▼ 19 pts

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 7%79%
↓ 5%23%
↑ 12%10%
↑ 15%5%
+1 more

$6K today
$96K all time · ends Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi▲ 3 pts

2028 Republican Presidential ticket

2028

JD Vance and Marco Rubio36%
Marco Rubio and JD Vance11%
JD Vance and Erika Kirk5%
JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders5%
+21 more

$5K today
$102K all time · ends Nov 7, 2028

Polymarket▲ 5 pts

Democratic Senate odds on October 9?

64-66%46%
>66%31%
62-64%14%
58-60%8%
+2 more

$3K today
$3K all time · ends Oct 9, 2026

Polymarket▲ 5 pts

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Ron DeSantis14%
Gavin Newsom14%
Marco Rubio10%
Raphael Warnock10%
+67 more

$3K today
$1.2M all time · ends Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi▼ 3 pts

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 1, 202748%
Before Jan 1, 202714%

$2K today
$90K all time · ends Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 30%45%
↑ 40%36%
↓ 25%18%
↑ 45%18%
+3 more

$2K today
$45K all time · ends Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls

At least 18288%
At least 18685%
At least 19078%
At least 19466%
+10 more

$1K today
$73K all time · ends Jan 3, 2027

Polymarket

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Andy Beshear89%
Pete Buttigieg85%
Ted Cruz85%
Gavin Newsom77%
+67 more

$1K today
$96K all time · ends Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

For the 2028 election

Ted Cruz80%
J.D. Vance80%
Ron DeSantis65%
Marco Rubio53%
+33 more

$1K today
$484K all time · ends Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi▲ 7 pts

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

2028

JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris10%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance9%
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom9%
AOC defeats JD Vance8%
+28 more

$1K today
$124K all time · ends Jan 20, 2029

Kalshi

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

On Nov 3, 2026

Utah Senate80%
Idaho Senate67%
Ohio Senate55%
South Carolina House55%
+17 more

$1K today
$4K all time · ends Jan 3, 2027

Kalshi

How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

at the November 3, 2026 general election

240%
328%
112%
08%
+3 more

$922 today
$30K all time · ends Dec 15, 2026

Polymarket▼ 3 pts

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

Senate53%
President45%
Neither3%

$807 today
$10K all time · ends Jan 1, 2028

Polymarket

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff57%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez25%
Gavin Newsom13%
Kamala Harris1%
+1 more

$735 today
$30K all time · ends Oct 31, 2026

Polymarket

Democratic VP Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%
Gretchen Whitmer8%
Josh Shapiro7%
Wes Moore7%
+39 more

$704 today
$105K all time · ends Nov 8, 2028

Kalshi▲ 1 pts

2028 Presidential matchup

2028

Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance14%
AOC v. JD Vance10%
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance9%
AOC v. Marco Rubio8%
+12 more

$653 today
$300K all time · ends Nov 7, 2028

Kalshi

Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Labour Party vote percent

Vote Percent - Labour Party

At least 20%97%
At least 30%94%
At least 35%77%
At least 40%55%
+4 more

$572 today
$1K all time · ends Dec 31, 2027

Kalshi

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

in 2028

Chuck Schumer80%
Chris Murphy8%
Brian Schatz7%
Chris Van Hollen5%
+9 more

$570 today
$141K all time · ends Dec 31, 2028

Kalshi▼ 1 pts

2028 Republican VP nominee

In 2028

Marco Rubio27%
J.D. Vance6%
Donald J. Trump Jr.4%
Donald J. Trump4%
+19 more

$564 today
$1.6M all time · ends Nov 7, 2028

Kalshi▲ 4 pts

Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

NE, KS, SC

Republican sweep58%
Nebraska, South Carolina23%
South Carolina9%
None6%
+4 more

$496 today
$33K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027

Kalshi▲ 1 pts

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

In 2026

Democratic party76%
Republican party24%

$446 today
$166K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket▼ 0 pts

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

243%
330%
111%
48%
+3 more

$406 today
$42K all time · ends Nov 4, 2026

Polymarket

Republican VP Nominee 2028

Marco Rubio30%
Marjorie Taylor Greene7%
J.D. Vance6%
Ivanka Trump5%
+31 more

$396 today
$49K all time · ends Nov 8, 2028

Polymarket

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

47–49 and 193–20731%
≤46 and ≤19221%
47–49 and ≤19215%
50–52 and 208–22212%
+9 more

$353 today
$47K all time · ends Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi▲ 4 pts

LA-05 Republican nominee?

LA-05 (R)

Michael Echols9%
Misti Cordell7%
Rick Edmonds3%
Blake Miguez3%
+3 more

$309 today
$64K all time · ends Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Andy Beshear21%
Gavin Newsom18%
Pete Buttigieg14%
Ro Khanna13%
+7 more

$294 today
$13K all time · ends Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?

Before Jan 2027

Before Jan 1, 202839%
Before Jul 1, 202713%
Before Jan 1, 20276%

$265 today
$48K all time · ends Jan 1, 2027

Markets in Kalshi's Politics and Elections categories and Polymarket's politics tags with at least $1,000 traded, except the races covered on our race pages. Prices are each exchange's own (bid/ask midpoint on Kalshi, displayed price on Polymarket). Research, not betting advice.