What are Bill Keating's chances of winning the 2026 MA-09 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Bill Keating a 97% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Bill Keating raised?

Bill Keating's campaign has raised $422K and has $496K cash on hand, through August 12, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · MA

Bill Keating

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Bill Keating (Democrat) a 97% chance of winning the 2026 MA-09 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MA-09 House race	97%	98%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $422K
Spent: $593K
Cash on hand: $496K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through August 12, 2026. $252K from individuals, $170K from PACs. FEC filings for William R Keating →

Running against

Tyler MacAllister3%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.