Republican · IL
Darren Bailey
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Darren Bailey (Republican) a 3% chance of winning the 2026 Illinois governor race (Kalshi 3%, Polymarket 2%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Illinois governor race | 3% | 3% | 2% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Polls
In the 2026 Illinois governor race, the Parlay polling average has Darren Bailey at 34% against JB Pritzker at 54%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2025-11-24).
Social buzz
53K interactions with posts about Darren Bailey in the last 24 hours from 37 people; 71% of posts read as positive, down 16% on last week.
- Trump is censoring journalists, and refusing to rein in AI—meanwhile Darren Bailey is silent. Welcome to this week's JBrief. JB Pritzker · tiktok-video
- Trump is censoring journalists, and refusing to rein in AI—meanwhile Darren Bailey is silent. Welcome to this week's JBrief. JB Pritzker · tweet
- @Marathonpundit @grok @GovPritzker The problem is Darren Bailey is not a good Republican candidate. Republicans have won in this State, but Darren Bailey will not, nobody wants him. Steve · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- JB Pritzker97%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
