What are David Valadao's chances of winning the 2026 CA-22 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give David Valadao a 8% chance (Kalshi 9%, Polymarket 7%).

How much money has David Valadao raised?

David Valadao's campaign has raised $4.9M and has $3.4M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · CA

David Valadao

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give David Valadao (Republican) a 8% chance of winning the 2026 CA-22 House race (Kalshi 9%, Polymarket 7%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-22 House race	8%	9%	7%	▼ 2¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $4.9M
Spent: $1.6M
Cash on hand: $3.4M
Outside groups for: $398K
Outside groups against: $4.5M

Through June 30, 2026. $1.4M from individuals, $1.9M from PACs. FEC filings for David Valadao →

Running against

Randy Villegas92%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.