What are Derek Tran's chances of winning the 2026 CA-45 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Derek Tran a 93% chance (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Derek Tran raised?

Derek Tran's campaign has raised $5.0M and has $3.3M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Derek Tran (Democrat) a 93% chance of winning the 2026 CA-45 House race (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 95%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-45 House race	93%	92%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through June 30, 2026. $3.6M from individuals, $1.1M from PACs. FEC filings for Derek Tran →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.