Democrat · VA
Elaine Luria
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Elaine Luria (Democrat) a 82% chance of winning the 2026 VA-02 House race (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 81%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 VA-02 House race | 82% | 82% | 81% | ▲ 1¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $4.7M
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $3.6M
- Outside groups for
- $210K
- Outside groups against
- $958K
Through July 15, 2026. $3.4M from individuals, $405K from PACs, $8K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Elaine Luria →
Polls
In the 2026 VA-02 House race, the Parlay polling average has Elaine Luria at 47% against Jen Kiggans at 47%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-07-13).
Running against
- Jen Kiggans18%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
