What are French Hill's chances of winning the 2026 AR-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give French Hill a 84% chance (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 83%).

How much money has French Hill raised?

French Hill's campaign has raised $4.4M and has $3.0M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · AR

French Hill

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give French Hill (Republican) a 84% chance of winning the 2026 AR-02 House race (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 83%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 AR-02 House race	84%	85%	83%	▲ 3¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $4.4M
Spent: $2.8M
Cash on hand: $3.0M
Outside groups for: $418K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.8M from individuals, $1.5M from PACs. FEC filings for James French Hill →

Polls

In the 2026 AR-02 House race, the Parlay polling average has French Hill at 44% against Chris Jones at 48%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-08-13).

Running against

Chris Jones16%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.