What are John Mannion's chances of winning the 2026 NY-22 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give John Mannion a 95% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has John Mannion raised?

John Mannion's campaign has raised $2.7M and has $1.8M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NY

John Mannion

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give John Mannion (Democrat) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 NY-22 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-22 House race	95%	96%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.7M
Spent: $980K
Cash on hand: $1.8M
Outside groups for: $71K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.7M from individuals, $826K from PACs. FEC filings for John W Mannion →

Running against

Kailee Buller5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.