What are Mark DeSaulnier's chances of winning the 2026 CA-10 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark DeSaulnier a 96% chance (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Mark DeSaulnier raised?

Mark DeSaulnier's campaign has raised $567K and has $586K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

Mark DeSaulnier

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark DeSaulnier (Democrat) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 CA-10 House race (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-10 House race	96%	97%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $567K
Spent: $610K
Cash on hand: $586K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $261K from individuals, $305K from PACs. FEC filings for Mark Desaulnier →

Running against

Jeff Frese4%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.