What are Mary Gay Scanlon's chances of winning the 2026 PA-05 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mary Gay Scanlon a 98% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

How much money has Mary Gay Scanlon raised?

Mary Gay Scanlon's campaign has raised $991K and has $449K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · PA

Mary Gay Scanlon

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mary Gay Scanlon (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 PA-05 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 PA-05 House race	98%	98%	98%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $991K
Spent: $860K
Cash on hand: $449K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $540K from individuals, $448K from PACs. FEC filings for Mary Gay Scanlon →

Running against

Nicholas Manganaro2%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.