What are Maxine Waters's chances of winning the 2026 CA-43 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Maxine Waters a 97% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Maxine Waters raised?

Maxine Waters's campaign has raised $864K and has $270K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

Maxine Waters

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Maxine Waters (Democrat) a 97% chance of winning the 2026 CA-43 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-43 House race	97%	98%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $864K
Spent: $710K
Cash on hand: $270K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $339K from individuals, $401K from PACs. FEC filings for Maxine Waters →

Running against

Cristian Morales3%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.