What are Melanie Stansbury's chances of winning the 2026 NM-01 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Melanie Stansbury a 98% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

How much money has Melanie Stansbury raised?

Melanie Stansbury's campaign has raised $1.4M and has $417K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NM

Melanie Stansbury

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Melanie Stansbury (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 NM-01 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NM-01 House race	98%	98%	99%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.4M
Spent: $1.1M
Cash on hand: $417K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $202K from PACs. FEC filings for Melanie Stansbury →

Running against

Didi Okpareke2%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.