What are Nathaniel Moran's chances of winning the 2026 TX-01 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Nathaniel Moran a 98% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Nathaniel Moran raised?

Nathaniel Moran's campaign has raised $1.8M and has $778K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · TX

Nathaniel Moran

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Nathaniel Moran (Republican) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 TX-01 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-01 House race	98%	98%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.8M
Spent: $1.4M
Cash on hand: $778K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $748K from individuals, $780K from PACs. FEC filings for Nathaniel Quentin Moran →

Running against

Yolanda R. Prince2%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.