What are Nick LaLota's chances of winning the 2026 NY-01 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Nick LaLota a 81% chance (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 80%).

How much money has Nick LaLota raised?

Nick LaLota's campaign has raised $3.8M and has $3.3M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · NY

Nick LaLota

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Nick LaLota (Republican) a 81% chance of winning the 2026 NY-01 House race (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 80%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-01 House race	81%	82%	80%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $3.8M
Spent: $1.1M
Cash on hand: $3.3M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.2M from individuals, $941K from PACs. FEC filings for Lalota Nick →

Polls

In the 2026 NY-01 House race, the Parlay polling average has Nick LaLota at 41% against Chris Gallant at 38%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2025-12-11).

Running against

Chris Gallant19%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.