What are Pat Fallon's chances of winning the 2026 TX-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pat Fallon a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Pat Fallon raised?

Pat Fallon's campaign has raised $791K and has $1.1M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · TX

Pat Fallon

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pat Fallon (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 TX-04 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-04 House race	95%	95%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $791K
Spent: $354K
Cash on hand: $1.1M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $258K from individuals, $300K from PACs. FEC filings for Patrick Fallon →

Running against

Jason Pearce5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.