What are Ted Lieu's chances of winning the 2026 CA-36 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Ted Lieu a 97% chance (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Ted Lieu raised?

Ted Lieu's campaign has raised $1.8M and has $1.2M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Ted Lieu (Democrat) a 97% chance of winning the 2026 CA-36 House race (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-36 House race	97%	97%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through June 30, 2026. $963K from individuals, $570K from PACs. FEC filings for Ted Lieu →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.