What are Thomas J. Smith's chances of winning the 2026 MI-08 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Thomas J. Smith a 6% chance (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 6%).

How much money has Thomas J. Smith raised?

Thomas J. Smith's campaign has raised $243K and has $220K cash on hand, through August 24, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MI

Thomas J. Smith

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Thomas J. Smith (Republican) a 6% chance of winning the 2026 MI-08 House race (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 6%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MI-08 House race	6%	6%	6%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $243K
Spent: $23K
Cash on hand: $220K
Outside groups for: $121K
Outside groups against: $0

Through August 24, 2026. $3K from individuals, $0 from PACs, $8K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Thomas James Smith →

Recent headlines

Scary That Democrats Still Support Jack Smith Operation RealClearPolitics · Oct 4

Running against

Kristen McDonald Rivet94%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.