What are Tom Stalcup's chances of winning the 2026 MA-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tom Stalcup a 2% chance (Kalshi 1%, Polymarket 2%).

How much money has Tom Stalcup raised?

Tom Stalcup's campaign has raised $26K and has $1K cash on hand, through August 12, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MA

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tom Stalcup (Republican) a 2% chance of winning the 2026 MA-04 House race (Kalshi 1%, Polymarket 2%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MA-04 House race	2%	1%	2%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through August 12, 2026. $9K from individuals, $0 from PACs, $17K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Thomas Phd Stalcup →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.