Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 86% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); the biggest move was MI-10 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 79% to 64%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 79% | D 64% | ▼ 15.3 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 59% | D 44% | ▼ 14.5 |
| PA-08 (Pennsylvania) | D 71% | D 67% | ▼ 4.2 |
| FL-22 (Florida) | D 43% | D 40% | ▼ 3.5 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 90% | D 94% | ▲ 3.5 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 54% | D 57% | ▲ 3.4 |
| FL-09 (Florida) | D 31% | D 34% | ▲ 3.2 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 51% | D 55% | ▲ 3.1 |
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 52% | D 55% | ▲ 2.9 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 91% | D 88% | ▼ 2.8 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Republican now favored: D 59% → 44%
