Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Republicans ended the day 51% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 87% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-04 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 49% to 59%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 49% | D 59% | ▲ 9.6 |
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 71% | D 79% | ▲ 8.6 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 45% | D 38% | ▼ 7.5 |
| AZ-02 (Arizona) | D 35% | D 31% | ▼ 4.3 |
| CA-27 (California) | D 94% | D 90% | ▼ 4.1 |
| VA-09 (Virginia) | D 6% | D 3% | ▼ 3.1 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 25% | D 28% | ▲ 3.1 |
| FL-22 (Florida) | D 41% | D 43% | ▲ 2.7 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 77% | D 79% | ▲ 2.4 |
| HI-01 (Hawaii) | D 97% | D 95% | ▼ 2.1 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 59%
