What are Adelita Grijalva's chances of winning the 2026 AZ-07 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Adelita Grijalva a 98% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

How much money has Adelita Grijalva raised?

Adelita Grijalva's campaign has raised $2.3M and has $428K cash on hand, through July 1, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · AZ

Adelita Grijalva

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Adelita Grijalva (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 AZ-07 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 AZ-07 House race	98%	98%	99%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.3M
Spent: $1.9M
Cash on hand: $428K
Outside groups for: $663K
Outside groups against: $196K

Through July 1, 2026. $1.8M from individuals, $436K from PACs. FEC filings for Adelita Grijalva →

Running against

Daniel Francis Butierez Sr.2%
Daniel Butierez1%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.