What are Adrian Smith's chances of winning the 2026 NE-03 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Adrian Smith a 98% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

How much money has Adrian Smith raised?

Adrian Smith's campaign has raised $1.8M and has $1.0M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · NE

Adrian Smith

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Adrian Smith (Republican) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 NE-03 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NE-03 House race	98%	98%	98%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.8M
Spent: $1.7M
Cash on hand: $1.0M
Outside groups for: $283K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $386K from individuals, $1.3M from PACs. FEC filings for Adrian Smith →

Recent headlines

Scary That Democrats Still Support Jack Smith Operation RealClearPolitics · Oct 4

Running against

Becky Stille2%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.