What are Blake Gendebien's chances of winning the 2026 NY-21 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Blake Gendebien a 18% chance (Kalshi 19%, Polymarket 18%).

How much money has Blake Gendebien raised?

Blake Gendebien's campaign has raised $5.5M and has $2.6M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NY

Blake Gendebien

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Blake Gendebien (Democrat) a 18% chance of winning the 2026 NY-21 House race (Kalshi 19%, Polymarket 18%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-21 House race	18%	19%	18%	▲ 1¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $5.5M
Spent: $3.1M
Cash on hand: $2.6M
Outside groups for: $61K
Outside groups against: $40K

Through June 30, 2026. $5.3M from individuals, $60K from PACs. FEC filings for Blake Gendebien →

Polls

In the 2026 NY-21 House race, the Parlay polling average has Blake Gendebien at 43% against Anthony Constantino at 48%, from 3 polls (newest ended 2026-09-10).

Running against

Anthony Constantino82%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.