What are Darren Soto's chances of winning the 2026 FL-09 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Darren Soto a 29% chance (Kalshi 28%, Polymarket 30%).

How much money has Darren Soto raised?

Darren Soto's campaign has raised $2.2M and has $1.2M cash on hand, through July 29, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · FL

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Darren Soto (Democrat) a 29% chance of winning the 2026 FL-09 House race (Kalshi 28%, Polymarket 30%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 FL-09 House race	29%	28%	30%	▲ 1¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 29, 2026. $766K from individuals, $1.4M from PACs. FEC filings for Darren Soto →

In the 2026 FL-09 House race, the Parlay polling average has Darren Soto at 41% against Dan Green at 41%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-08-30).

17K interactions with posts about Darren Soto in the last 24 hours from 16 people; 65% of posts read as positive, up 456% on last week.

Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.