What are Fred Wellman's chances of winning the 2026 MO-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Fred Wellman a 27% chance (Polymarket 27%).

How much money has Fred Wellman raised?

Fred Wellman's campaign has raised $1.2M and has $242K cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · MO

Fred Wellman

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Fred Wellman (Democrat) a 27% chance of winning the 2026 MO-02 House race (Polymarket 27%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MO-02 House race	27%	—	27%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.2M
Spent: $914K
Cash on hand: $242K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through July 15, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $53K from PACs. FEC filings for Frederick Paul Wellman →

Polls

In the 2026 MO-02 House race, the Parlay polling average has Fred Wellman at 42% against Ann Wagner at 43%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-09-15).

Social buzz

274 interactions with posts about Fred Wellman in the last 24 hours from 5 people; 54% of posts read as positive, down 36% on last week.

Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.

Running against

Ann Wagner73%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.