What are Henry Cuellar's chances of winning the 2026 TX-28 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Henry Cuellar a 89% chance (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89%).

How much money has Henry Cuellar raised?

Henry Cuellar's campaign has raised $2.2M and has $1.1M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · TX

Henry Cuellar

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Henry Cuellar (Democrat) a 89% chance of winning the 2026 TX-28 House race (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-28 House race	89%	89%	89%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.2M
Spent: $1.2M
Cash on hand: $1.1M
Outside groups for: $193K
Outside groups against: $159K

Through June 30, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $671K from PACs, $315K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Henry R. Cuellar →

Polls

In the 2026 TX-28 House race, the Parlay polling average has Henry Cuellar at 45% against Tano Tijerina at 34%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-08-22).

Running against

Tano Tijerina11%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.