What are Tano Tijerina's chances of winning the 2026 TX-28 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tano Tijerina a 11% chance (Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 11%).

How much money has Tano Tijerina raised?

Tano Tijerina's campaign has raised $1.4M and has $768K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · TX

Tano Tijerina

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Tano Tijerina (Republican) a 11% chance of winning the 2026 TX-28 House race (Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 11%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-28 House race	11%	12%	11%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.4M
Spent: $632K
Cash on hand: $768K
Outside groups for: $117K
Outside groups against: $1.2M

Through June 30, 2026. $604K from individuals, $238K from PACs. FEC filings for Tano Tijerina →

Polls

In the 2026 TX-28 House race, the Parlay polling average has Tano Tijerina at 34% against Henry Cuellar at 45%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-08-22).

Running against

Henry Cuellar89%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.