What are Jay Obernolte's chances of winning the 2026 CA-23 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jay Obernolte a 95% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 94%).

How much money has Jay Obernolte raised?

Jay Obernolte's campaign has raised $1.5M and has $1.6M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · CA

Jay Obernolte

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jay Obernolte (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 CA-23 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 94%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-23 House race	95%	96%	94%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.5M
Spent: $809K
Cash on hand: $1.6M
Outside groups for: $260K
Outside groups against: $19K

Through June 30, 2026. $499K from individuals, $863K from PACs. FEC filings for Jay Obernolte →

Running against

Tessa Lynn Hodge5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.