What are Jill Tokuda's chances of winning the 2026 HI-02 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jill Tokuda a 96% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Jill Tokuda raised?

Jill Tokuda's campaign has raised $821K and has $570K cash on hand, through July 19, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · HI

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jill Tokuda (Democrat) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 HI-02 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 HI-02 House race	96%	96%	96%	▲ 4¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 19, 2026. $635K from individuals, $183K from PACs. FEC filings for Jill Naomi Tokuda →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.