What are Joaquin Castro's chances of winning the 2026 TX-20 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Joaquin Castro a 96% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Joaquin Castro raised?

Joaquin Castro's campaign has raised $515K and has $154K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · TX

Joaquin Castro

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Joaquin Castro (Democrat) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 TX-20 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-20 House race	96%	96%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $515K
Spent: $499K
Cash on hand: $154K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $374K from individuals, $141K from PACs. FEC filings for Joaquin Castro →

Running against

Edgardo Baez4%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.