What are Johnny Garrett's chances of winning the 2026 TN-06 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Johnny Garrett a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Johnny Garrett raised?

Johnny Garrett's campaign has raised $2.4M and has $288K cash on hand, through July 17, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · TN

Johnny Garrett

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Johnny Garrett (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 TN-06 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TN-06 House race	95%	95%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.4M
Spent: $2.1M
Cash on hand: $288K
Outside groups for: $600K
Outside groups against: $253K

Through July 17, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $103K from PACs, $1.2M of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Johnny Garrett →

Running against

Mike Croley5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.