What are Jonny Larsen's chances of winning the 2026 UT-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jonny Larsen a 5% chance (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4%).

How much money has Jonny Larsen raised?

Jonny Larsen's campaign has raised $54K and has $1K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · UT

Jonny Larsen

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jonny Larsen (Democrat) a 5% chance of winning the 2026 UT-04 House race (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 UT-04 House race	5%	6%	4%	▲ 2¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $54K
Spent: $52K
Cash on hand: $1K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $17K from individuals, $250 from PACs, $36K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Jonny Larsen →

Polls

In the 2026 UT-04 House race, the Parlay polling average has Jonny Larsen at 33% against Mike Kennedy at 42%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-09-17).

Running against

Mike Kennedy95%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.