What are Mark Messmer's chances of winning the 2026 IN-08 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Messmer a 96% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Mark Messmer raised?

Mark Messmer's campaign has raised $1.2M and has $714K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · IN

Mark Messmer

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Messmer (Republican) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 IN-08 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IN-08 House race	96%	95%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.2M
Spent: $665K
Cash on hand: $714K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $257K from individuals, $421K from PACs, $4K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Mark Messmer →

Running against

Mary Allen4%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.