What are Mark Takano's chances of winning the 2026 CA-39 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Takano a 96% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Mark Takano raised?

Mark Takano's campaign has raised $894K and has $186K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Takano (Democrat) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 CA-39 House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 96%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-39 House race	96%	96%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through June 30, 2026. $478K from individuals, $405K from PACs. FEC filings for Mark Takano →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.