Democrat · VA
Mark Warner
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Warner (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Virginia Senate race (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Virginia Senate race | 98% | 99% | 98% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $17.9M
- Spent
- $7.3M
- Cash on hand
- $16.1M
- Outside groups for
- $150K
- Outside groups against
- $0
Through July 15, 2026. $9.3M from individuals, $2.1M from PACs. FEC filings for Mark Robert Warner →
Polls
In the 2026 Virginia Senate race, the Parlay polling average has Mark Warner at 51% against Bert Mizusawa at 33%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-06-16).
Social buzz
59K interactions with posts about Mark Warner in the last 24 hours from 87 people; 64% of posts read as positive, down 16% on last week.
- VA Dem Senator @MarkWarner hosts all the Dems of the DMV at one of his multi million dollar properties in King George VA $2,000,000, 100+ acres, winery Feel the “Affordability” like Mark 2019 public invite: NOVA Campaigns · tweet
- Warner is so wealthy he can throw barbecues ... meanwhile, Virginians are trying to figure out how to pay their newly raised electric bills. The🎃FOO · tweet
- Voting in Virginia this November? You’ll have a chance to vote on three proposed changes to the state constitution. Sen. Mark Warner joins me to break down what each amendment would do and how you can vote early. #MarkWa accordingto_andy · tiktok-video
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
