What are Micah Lasher's chances of winning the 2026 NY-12 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Micah Lasher a 99% chance (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).

How much money has Micah Lasher raised?

Micah Lasher's campaign has raised $3.3M and has $1.1M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NY

Micah Lasher

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Micah Lasher (Democrat) a 99% chance of winning the 2026 NY-12 House race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-12 House race	99%	98%	100%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $3.3M
Spent: $2.2M
Cash on hand: $1.1M
Outside groups for: $10.8M
Outside groups against: $3.0M

Through June 30, 2026. $2.8M from individuals, $22K from PACs, $500K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Micah Charles Lasher →

Running against

Caroline Shinkle1%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.