What are Michael Chiaradio's chances of winning the 2026 MS-03 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Michael Chiaradio a 1% chance (Kalshi 3%, Polymarket 0%).

How much money has Michael Chiaradio raised?

Michael Chiaradio's campaign has raised $155K and has $23K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · MS

Michael Chiaradio

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Michael Chiaradio (Democrat) a 1% chance of winning the 2026 MS-03 House race (Kalshi 3%, Polymarket 0%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MS-03 House race	1%	3%	0%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $155K
Spent: $132K
Cash on hand: $23K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $135K from individuals, $0 from PACs, $18K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Michael Alexis Chiaradio →

Running against

Michael Guest99%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.