Republican · MN
Michele Tafoya
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Michele Tafoya (Republican) a 12% chance of winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race (Kalshi 14%, Polymarket 11%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Minnesota Senate race | 12% | 14% | 11% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $5.3M
- Spent
- $4.0M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
- Outside groups for
- $20K
- Outside groups against
- $444K
Through July 22, 2026. $4.7M from individuals, $167K from PACs, $8K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Michele Tafoya →
Polls
In the 2026 Minnesota Senate race, the Parlay polling average has Michele Tafoya at 43% against Peggy Flanagan at 45%, from 6 polls (newest ended 2026-09-30).
Social buzz
1.0M interactions with posts about Michele Tafoya in the last 24 hours from 219 people; 50% of posts read as positive, up 70% on last week.
- 🚨 NOW: Minnesota US Senate candidate Michele Tafoya (R) just RIPPED IN to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) after she was COMPLICIT in the mass Tim Walz-permitted fraud "There is NO WAY she can say she was separate from this o Eric Daugherty · tweet
- 🚨 JUST IN: Republican Minnesota Senate candidate Michele Tafoya is WITHIN *1 POINT* of Democrat Peggy Flanagan, per new poll — she could be the first GOP MN senator in close to 2 DECADES The fraud is hopefully waking Min Eric Daugherty · tweet
- 🇺🇸 Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, says Minnesota's lieutenant governor sat through the biggest fraud in the state and now wants a Senate seat. Peggy Flanagan has been Tim Walz's number two since 2019. Tafoy Mario Nawfal · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
