What are Pat Ryan's chances of winning the 2026 NY-18 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pat Ryan a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Pat Ryan raised?

Pat Ryan's campaign has raised $4.7M and has $3.1M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NY

Pat Ryan

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pat Ryan (Democrat) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 NY-18 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-18 House race	95%	95%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $4.7M
Spent: $1.8M
Cash on hand: $3.1M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $3.6M from individuals, $527K from PACs. FEC filings for Patrick Ryan →

Polls

In the 2026 NY-18 House race, the Parlay polling average has Pat Ryan at 53% against Jacqueline Auringer at 39%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-07-26).

Running against

Jacqueline Auringer5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.