Democrat · NY
Paul Tonko
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Paul Tonko (Democrat) a 97% chance of winning the 2026 NY-20 House race (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 NY-20 House race | 97% | 97% | 97% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $958K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $404K
- Outside groups for
- $0
- Outside groups against
- $0
Through June 30, 2026. $338K from individuals, $617K from PACs. FEC filings for Paul David Tonko →
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
