What are Pete Aguilar's chances of winning the 2026 CA-33 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pete Aguilar a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Pete Aguilar raised?

Pete Aguilar's campaign has raised $4.7M and has $3.5M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · CA

Pete Aguilar

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Pete Aguilar (Democrat) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 CA-33 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 CA-33 House race	95%	95%	96%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $4.7M
Spent: $3.9M
Cash on hand: $3.5M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.9M from individuals, $2.1M from PACs. FEC filings for Pete Aguilar →

Running against

Stephanie Vargas5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.