What are Sarah Elfreth's chances of winning the 2026 MD-03 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Sarah Elfreth a 96% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Sarah Elfreth raised?

Sarah Elfreth's campaign has raised $1.1M and has $336K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · MD

Sarah Elfreth

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Sarah Elfreth (Democrat) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 MD-03 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MD-03 House race	96%	95%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.1M
Spent: $836K
Cash on hand: $336K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $693K from individuals, $442K from PACs. FEC filings for Sarah Kelly Elfreth →

Running against

Berney Flowers4%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.