Republican · CA
Steve Hilton
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Steve Hilton (Republican) a 4% chance of winning the 2026 California governor race (Kalshi 4%, Polymarket 4%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 California governor race | 4% | 4% | 4% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Polls
In the 2026 California governor race, the Parlay polling average has Steve Hilton at 35% against Xavier Becerra at 57%, from 4 polls (newest ended 2026-09-20).
Social buzz
4.5M interactions with posts about Steve Hilton in the last 24 hours from 1K people; 56% of posts read as positive, up 259% on last week.
- California Governor Poll (Hilton internal) 🟦 Xavier Becerra: 45.7% 🟥 Steve Hilton: 40.1% ⬜️ Not sure: 14.1% Undecideds forced to choose leaned 72.5% Becerra, 27.5% Hilton. —— David Wolfson | 10/1-2 | 1,020 LV InteractivePolls · tweet
- David Wolfson poll | 10/1-10/2 LV California Governor 2026 🟦Xavier Becerra 45.7% 🟥Steve Hilton 40.1% (Steve Hilton internal) Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 · tweet
- CALIFORNIA POLL - Governor 🟦 Xavier Becerra: 48% 🟥 Steve Hilton: 38% —— Prop 40 (The Billionaire Tax Act) ❌️ NO: 40% ✅️ YES: 38% IVC Media | 9/23-28 | 2,906 LV For Independent voter project InteractivePolls · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- Kamala Harris0%
- Xavier Becerra96%
- Tom Steyer0%
- Rick Caruso0%
- Alex Padilla0%
- Katie Porter0%
- Antonio Villaraigosa0%
- Stephen Cloobeck0%
- Butch Ware0%
- Betty Yee0%
- Toni Atkins0%
- Kyle Langford0%
- Chad Bianco0%
- Eleni Kounalakis0%
- Daniel Mercuri0%
- Tony Thurmond0%
- Michael Younger0%
- Leo Zacky0%
- Nicole Shanahan0%
- Eric Swalwell0%
- Matt Mahan0%
- Elaine Culotti0%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
