What are Victor Arias's chances of winning the 2026 FL-19 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Victor Arias a 6% chance (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 5%).

How much money has Victor Arias raised?

Victor Arias's campaign has raised $58K and has $19K cash on hand, through September 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · FL

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Victor Arias (Democrat) a 6% chance of winning the 2026 FL-19 House race (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 5%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 FL-19 House race	6%	6%	5%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through September 30, 2026. $27K from individuals, $0 from PACs, $31K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Victor M. Arias →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.