Daily market report
Election markets on Saturday, May 30, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 0.5 points); Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-08 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 88% to 67%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-08 (Michigan) | D 88% | D 67% | ▼ 21.3 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 89% | D 69% | ▼ 19.7 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 95% | D 79% | ▼ 15.9 |
| MA-05 (Massachusetts) | D 95% | D 80% | ▼ 15.4 |
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 86% | D 72% | ▼ 13.8 |
| NH-02 (New Hampshire) | D 82% | D 71% | ▼ 11.5 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 38% | D 49% | ▲ 11.4 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 78% | D 67% | ▼ 11.1 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 15% | D 26% | ▲ 10.6 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 12% | D 22% | ▲ 10.1 |
