Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, May 31, 2026
Republicans ended the day 55% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was NY-19 (New York), where Democratic odds went from 83% to 50%; 2 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-19 (New York) | D 83% | D 50% | ▼ 33.1 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 19% | D 43% | ▲ 23.6 |
| OH-13 (Ohio) | D 88% | D 66% | ▼ 22.4 |
| MI-08 (Michigan) | D 67% | D 87% | ▲ 20.6 |
| TX-38 (Texas) | D 34% | D 17% | ▼ 17.2 |
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 72% | D 56% | ▼ 16.9 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 82% | D 66% | ▼ 16.6 |
| WI-01 (Wisconsin) | D 38% | D 54% | ▲ 16.2 |
| MA-05 (Massachusetts) | D 80% | D 95% | ▲ 15.7 |
| NY-22 (New York) | D 57% | D 73% | ▲ 15.6 |
Lead changes
- TX-35 (Texas)Democrat now favored: D 46% → 55%
- WI-01 (Wisconsin)Democrat now favored: D 38% → 54%
